Can triathlon’s ‘Norwegian Method’ and Kristian Blummenfelt conquer cycling’s Tour de France?

Kristian Blummenfelt’s long-rumoured transition to cycling moved a significant step closer at the weekend – but there are still many questions to be answered.

The Norwegian first defends his Olympic triathlon gold medal in Paris on Tuesday morning, water quality issues in the River Seine permitting.

After that comes a bid to win the IRONMAN World Championship in Kona in October – and his coach Olav Aleksander Bu revealed in an interview with Norwegian outlet TV 2 on Sunday that a move into cycling is then on the cards.

He said: “Let’s say that it is 90 percent likely that we will go cycling next year. The reason I say 90 is that we haven’t signed a contract yet. There are still a few small things that must be cleared.”

And that’s led to plenty of speculation about how Bu – and Blummenfelt – will take the famed ‘Norwegian Method’ to professional cycling. Here’s what we know so far…

Jayco and Uno-X links?

Bu had recently told Mark Allen in an interview that featured on TRI247 that he was “in dialogue with a couple of people”.

Talking to TV 2, he revealed: “We go for cycling because we believe there is an opportunity to make a difference there. We feel that the research, development, technology and approach we have is being met with open arms in some teams, who really want and understand that you need to make a further step up there.”

And TV 2 has now linked them to the Australian Jayco AlUla professional team which was launched as GreenEDGE Cycling back in 2011 and currently rides GIANT bikes as has Blummenfelt.

And there’s another intriguing connection in the shape of the Uno-X Mobility team, whose general manager is Thor Hushovd.

Hushovd, widely considered the greatest Norwegian cyclist of all time, won the World Championship road race in 2010, multiple stages of the Tour de France as well as twice winning the points classification green jersey.

Asked by TV 2 what the chances are of Blummenfelt joining Uno-X, he is quoted as saying: “We look at the best Norwegian and Danish riders out there, so if he is one of them, he is certainly relevant.”

But he also underlined the challenges ahead for Blummenfelt, pointing out: “I think it will be difficult, there are many reasons for that. But I hope I’m wrong. I’ll look at his wattage numbers and keep a close eye on him.”

In terms of the PTO’s rankings, Blummenfelt ended 2023 as the world number one in middle / long-distance triathlon – and #2 on the bike standings, with Denmark’s Magnus Ditlev the only man ahead of him.

What is the Norwegian Method?

Bu’s stock as a coach could hardly be higher, and this project forms the centrepiece of what he says will be seven more years for him at the highest level of sport.

Along with Blummenfelt and his compatriot Gustav Iden (who is staying in triathlon), he has helped revolutionise triathlon – not just winning the Olympic gold but multiple IRONMAN and IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship titles as well as many other of the sport’s biggest races.

And Bu has already shown he can excel in other sports outside of triathlon – coaching at Olympic level in sailing too.

But this project would be truly ground-breaking – on a par or even a step or two ahead of what Sir Dave Brailsford achieved when he translated British Cycling’s success on the track into Tour de France victories within three years.

Bu celebrated his 43rd birthday earlier this month and told Mark Allen that between now and turning 50 is “the span I give myself now with this kind of dedication to sports.”

So it’s clear that the cycling project is a key cornerstone of that, with the end goal of winning the Tour de France.

Bu told TV 2: “We probably need a few years. The first year will probably not be the Tour de France. 2025 will probably be more of a year of mapping, where we have to find out where we have to work. Not only with Kristian specifically, but also with the team. 

“In 2026, we aim to sit in the Tour de France. In 2027 we must be in a position to take some jerseys. If we are not in a position to take some stage wins or be at the very top in the overall, it is difficult to think that we will do something magical until 2028. So we think that then we will really test it in 2027, and then the goal of going all in in 2028.”

How tough will a switch to cycling be?

Another esteemed triathlon coach who knows exactly what is required to succeed at the top level of cycling is Dan Lorang.

Lorang coached the great Jan Frodeno throughout his long-distance career and now looks after the likes of IRONMAN World Champions Lucy Charles-Barclay and Anne Haug as well as US phenom Taylor Knibb.

But his main job is Head of Performance / Head Coach at Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe, one of the pro peloton’s top teams, with the likes of Primož Roglič in their ranks.

Chatting to us recently about Knibb’s move into cycling – she had a baptism of fire in the Olympics Time Trial on Saturday – we asked him about the then rumours that Blummenfelt was exploring a cycling switch.

He told us: “We see athletes coming from different sports who can push the power. You can have the power, you can have the VO2 level but can you produce that in the peloton?

“You’re dealing with all the external factors when you are in the race. This transition is not easy and is often underestimated.

“But sometimes you have exceptions who are able to adapt quite fast to that environment. It’s not all about the power or the performance, it’s more about getting used to that new environment.

“The same for Kristian. I would say for sure he has the potential to do this but I think it [needs] a project to make it happen. And I have no clue how he would handle being in the peloton and all the stress around it. It’s something you’d have to test, maybe first in a development team.

“For sure it’s a really interesting project. And we have to be careful to respect the cyclists because it’s still a different level. I have never seen a triathlete who would compete with a Tadej Pogačar or a Jonas Vingegaard when we talk about winning.

“About competing yes, but winning – that’s a different level.”